Fold Pre Principle
- Translation: You never should have played that hand in the first place.
- The simplest fix was to never enter that low conviction spot at all.
- Everyone knows that they should cut their losers early but the fold pre principle is to avoid low conviction bets entirely.
- You see these martingales in real life as well.
- An unhappy couple clings to the relationship because “we have so much history.”
- A friend stays at a dead end job promising to quit “after one more year.”
- Sunk cost habits kill asymmetric bets.
- Poker players say fold pre
- Traders say cut your losers early
- Tech founders say fail fast.
- Ask yourself if you were free of these commitments at no cost, would you still choose it today?
- Would you re-enter the position?
- Would you get back into the relationship?
- Would you reapply for the job?
Pocket Ace Principle
- The pocket ace principle is:
- When you’re dealt pocket aces, bet the house
- Recognizing pocket aces becomes second nature with experience
- The world is winner-takes-most and outcomes distributed along power laws. Poker is no different. In a live sample of 1 million hands1, the top 20 starting hands (88+, AJo+) capture almost all of the profit in the game and the other hands bleed it all back. If you can play only premium hands without others noticing, you absolutely should.
